Prashant Kishor: The ‘Spoiler’ in Bihar’s Next Election?

NEW DELHI: Poll strategist-turned-politician Prashant Kishor is emerging as the potential “chief ministerial face of ‘others'” in Bihar and is set to play the role of a major spoiler in the state’s next election, according to election analyst Amitabh Tiwari.

​Tiwari said that the non-NDA, non-Mahagathbandhan parties in Bihar already command a healthy vote share. He argues that Kishor’s entry will likely impact the vote shares of these other parties more than it will affect the two major coalitions, the NDA and the Mahagathbandhan.

​While Kishor’s “Jan Suraaj” campaign is gaining traction among the youth, the educated middle class, and a section of the poor, Tiwari believes he is not likely to win. Instead, he will primarily act as a spoiler, similar to the role the LJP played in the 2020 election.

​The analyst highlighted the critical nature of small vote shifts in Bihar’s tight electoral races. “There were 83 seats where the victory margin was less than or equal to 5% (of the total votes) in 2020. 37 were won by the NDA, 38 by the Mahagathbandhan, and seven by others,” Tiwari pointed out.

​”If, on these seats, he (Kishor) gets a vote share of 5 per cent or more, he is likely to damage the coalitions.”

​Tiwari concluded with a clear prediction: Kishor’s performance will directly dictate the nature of the election. “The better Jan Suraaj does, the closer the election will be; the worse he does, the more one-sided the election is likely to be.”